Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Belgium
  • Italy
  • Slovenia
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • North Macedonia
  • Spain
  • Montenegro
  • United Kingdom
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Iceland
  • Austria
  • Armenia
  • Poland

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $623,760$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{771,428.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 244.7)}}\) (asimptote \(771,428.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $18,545$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,595.7}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 48.2)}}\) (asimptote \(11,595.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $605,215$ on 2020-12-19

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,938,083$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $68,447$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,489.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 56.6)}}\) (asimptote \(40,489.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $620,166$ on 2020-12-19

Slovenia⮸

Population $2,078,938$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $105,013$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,314$ on 2020-12-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,158$ on 2020-12-19

Bosnia and Herzegovina⮸

Population $3,280,819$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $105,524$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{396,040.3}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 331.7)}}\) (asimptote \(396,040.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,625$ on 2020-12-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,279$ on 2020-12-19

North Macedonia⮸

Population $2,083,374$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $77,949$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,274$ on 2020-12-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,330$ on 2020-12-19

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,797,236$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,855,996.8}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 374.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,855,996.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $48,926$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,515.6}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 93.5)}}\) (asimptote \(45,515.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,597,934$ on 2020-12-19

Montenegro⮸

Population $628,066$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,709$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87,939.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 276.0)}}\) (asimptote \(87,939.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $624$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,336.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 276.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,336.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,297$ on 2020-12-19

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,010,077$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $67,177$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,118.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(46,118.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,938,546$ on 2020-12-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 90%
Austria recovered 59%
Armenia recovered 55%
Poland recovered 45%
Romania recovered 33%
Malta recovered 28%
Italy recovered 23%
Croatia recovered 20%
Belarus recovered 18%
Montenegro recovered 17%
Slovenia recovered 14%
Bulgaria recovered 9%
Ukraine recovered 5%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,621$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28$ on 2020-12-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $126$ on 2020-12-19

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $337,209$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{528,176.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 274.6)}}\) (asimptote \(528,176.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,209$ on 2020-12-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,389$ on 2020-12-19

Armenia⮸

Population $2,963,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $153,173$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,375,798.1}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 515.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,375,798.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,616$ on 2020-12-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,626$ on 2020-12-19

Poland⮸

Population $37,846,611$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,194,110$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25,254$ on 2020-12-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $241,133$ on 2020-12-19